Time frame for future large earthquakes near İstanbul based on east-to-west decelerating failure of the North Anatolian Fault

نویسندگان

چکیده

Large earthquakes that have occurred along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) were analysed to elaborate time frame of future large near İstanbul. The historical earthquake catalog was compiled covered 1 nearly complete and 2 fully failures NAF between 1250 2000 AD. These data used investigate space-time systematics M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes. catalogue identified an east-to-west decelerating domino-like failure NAF. deceleration starts around western tip 1944 Gerede rupture. This suggested remaining unruptured ~250-km section in west (İstanbul Saros) will take substantially longer than already ruptured ~950-km east (Karlıova İzmit). calculations indicated last for 243 ± 3 years. could not be explained by strain partitioning subparallel strands Marmara region.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1300-0985', '1303-619X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3906/yer-2006-7